


The Nature of Conflict and Rebuilding

by lifeaftermeteor



Category: Gundam Wing
Genre: Conflict, Diplomacy, Earth Sphere United Nations, Gen, Gundams, International Relations, Meta, Post-War, Preventers (Gundam Wing), Rebuilding, War, Worldbuilding
Language: English
Status: Completed
Published: 2020-07-18
Updated: 2020-07-18
Packaged: 2021-03-04 17:53:38
Rating: General Audiences
Warnings: No Archive Warnings Apply
Chapters: 1
Words: 4,343
Publisher: archiveofourown.org
Story URL: https://archiveofourown.org/works/25360426
Author URL: https://archiveofourown.org/users/lifeaftermeteor/pseuds/lifeaftermeteor
Summary: Through the events of the Gundam Wing series, we are met with what appears to be the final nine months of a drawn-out, simmering conflict that has escalated and broken down into ever more confusing pieces.  The brief glimpses of peace within Endless Waltz, set one year later, only add more questions to the docket.  How was peace achieved?  How has the world recovered?  What mechanisms were put in place to sustain it?  How did the world—both Earth and the orbital colonies—rebuild?  A thought experiment and meta on worldbuilding in the AC Unvierse.
Kudos: 4
Collections: Worldbuilding in the AC Universe





	The Nature of Conflict and Rebuilding

**Author's Note:**

> Originally a series of musings on [my Tumblr](http://lifeaftermeteor.tumblr.com/) and then cleaned up as part of the [2019 Rhythm Generaiton](https://acworldbuildingzine.tumblr.com/) worldbuilding zine project.

Gundam Wing is a space opera at heart: tragedy and violence, sacrifice and loss, eventual peace and reconciliation. Self-aware enough to acknowledge the perpetual beats of “war, peace, and revolution” which define human history, the series still leaves much to the imagination when it comes to the nature of conflict and eventual reconstruction.

Through the events of the series, we are met with what appears to be the final nine months of a drawn-out, simmering conflict that has escalated and broken down into ever more confusing pieces. The brief glimpses of peace within _Endless Waltz_ , set one year later, only add more questions to the docket. How was peace achieved? How has the world recovered? What mechanisms were put in place to sustain it? How did the world—both Earth and the orbital colonies—rebuild?

Before we get into the matter of peace and rebuilding, however, we need to understand the elements which underpin everything else: sovereignty and the nature of conflict.

**The Question of Sovereignty**

_Are the Orbital Colonies Sovereign?_

A quick note first on definitions because what constitutes ‘sovereignty’ matters for both the nature of conflict and post-conflict reconstruction. [Sovereignty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereignty) in brief is right and power to self-govern without outside interference. Sovereign countries and states are responsible for their own national and domestic matters, serve as independent actors on an international scale, and can enter into alliances and coalitions to maximize their strength and power. 

Meanwhile, [a colony](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colony) _does not_ have any independent international representation and its administration falls under _direct_ control of a higher “metropolitan” state. They are populated by (at least some) settlers from a “mother country” and can either (a) start as a sovereign nation that is overtaken by another or (b) did not have its own statehood before coming under direct control of another state. This differs from a puppet state in which a state has _de jure_ independence but is _de facto_ under complete control and is dependent on an outside power. It also differs from a satellite state which is a country that is technically independent but is under heavy political, economic and military influence or control from another country (think Eastern Europe and Soviet Russia).

This would mean that, by definition, the orbital colonies _are not independent actors_ and instead fall under the control and jurisdiction of Earth-based countries/states. Unfortunately, canon material leaves much to the imagination when it comes to the colonies’ relationships with their “mother country.” Although the narrative does provide insight into oppression by the United Earth Sphere Alliance of the colonies, individual colony-country relationships (vs. the broader colonial-Earth relationship) are not addressed. This is problematic in the sense that that element and those relationships are key to defining the parameters of and building effective negotiating strategies in support of peaceful resolutions of conflict. 

Additionally, the extent to which certain colonies experience greater punitive action on the part of the Alliance compared to others is likewise not directly addressed; we are only aware that the Alliance gained control over the colonies one after another. If we assume certain island clusters suffered more than others at the hands of the Alliance, then this could be used as a tool by the Alliance (and mother countries, honestly) to further divide and prevent a unified front forming among the orbital colonies. Even so, canon shows that the oppression was enough to generate colonial separatist groups and other forms of organized resistance.

_Are There Still Independent States on Earth?_

Relena Darlian, serving as the Chief Representative of the Romefeller Foundation, [delivered](http://www.oocities.org/televisioncity/set/8812/gundam/speeches.htm) an impassioned “One World Nation” speech in which she announced “the elimination of all national borders” and “declar[ed] one nation, the world nation.” Although suspended disbelief is a perfectly valid read of this announcement, practical application is another matter. A Chief Representative of a non-sovereign entity (a “foundation,” you’ll note) no matter how superpowered does not have the right or the capacity to actually enforce and enact this vision. Sovereign states alone have the authority to change their borders—be it through violence or negotiation—so either (a) the work had already begun _long_ before and Relena was the public face formally launching the change, or (b) her speech should be viewed as a “vision speech,” intended to elicit emotion and conversation and reflection rather than a statement of policy and law. Let’s explore both possibilities quickly.

In the first case, the changes that would have to happen around the world for this vision to be actualized are nearly insurmountable within the time horizon presented in the television show (less than one year); but if work had already been underway before the announcement, what would have to be done? If we assume that all borders are removed and Earth is _one_ entity upon the announcement of a “One World Nation,” then all resources—people, materials, etc.—are now combined into one massive pool from which the Earth-based government can draw. This strengthens their standing as a singular entity and ostensibly removes a core source of conflict between states (resources or borders being the primaries). These matters become _internal_ disputes for negotiation and litigation vs. _external_ disputes that spark war. However, this massive entity will now have to navigate _immense_ amounts of political cat herding to keep everyone focused on the big picture and not get tied up with these internal disputes whenever they arise (because they are guaranteed to arise). 

In the second case, wherein Relena’s speech is more focused on generating conversation, borders continue to exist, the [Westphalian System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westphalian_sovereignty) that we know in our present day CE world still holds firm, and all the tragedies and frustrations of policy-making and foreign affairs continue apace. 

_What is the Role of the Central Body (the Alliance and subsequently, the ESUN)?_

The show opens with reference to the ‘Alliance’ but not much more is known of its history. By virtue of it being an “Alliance”—and courtesy [this handy timeline](https://web.archive.org/web/20190531032605/http://aboutgundamwing.com/timeline.htm)—we know Earth-based conflicts led to the formation of the Alliance as peace negotiations were underway. Looking at other CE-era alliances, we can expect that the Alliance itself actually formed _much earlier_ than during peace negotiations. When we see it in the Gundam Wing series, it has evolved into some outsized NATO. It’s not clear which Earth states are or are not in the Alliance, and for this reason it almost seems as if it has taken on an additional United Nations-esque role for global governance. However, we can assume the Alliance continues to derive its authority from the individual member states, not necessarily the institution itself.

Why? Because the Alliance pulled authority away from the colonies and returned it to their “mother countries” long before the events of the series (see timeline linked above). This means (1) that the colonies themselves did not have separate representation in the Alliance itself, and (2) the military crack-downs we see may come under an Alliance banner, but we can probably safely assume the source countries themselves are leading the charge.

Shifting gears and jumping ahead post-conflict, the ESUN is established in AC 196. From supplementary materials, this stands for the _Earth Sphere **Unified Nation**_ (singular)[1], which lends a whole lot of credence to that abolishing-borders effort Relena launched the year prior. The fact that _Endless Waltz_ includes commentary by Lady Une—now Preventers Director—that there is a _President_ who is an _elected official_ lends further support for the no-borders route. 

The political machinations behind first the Alliance and then the ESUN are not discussed in canon, but we can easily deduce two possibilities based on real world possibilities. If one opts to assume that Relena’s aforementioned speech truly eliminated all national borders, then the ESUN serves as the centralized authority for all Earth-based governing matters and individual members within the institution serve as voices for their respective constituencies. Consider the ESUN itself the Congressional or Parliamentary body, the ESUN President the Speaker or Prime Minister. None of them are individually all-powerful in their own right and consensus-building is key to good governance, but idea that there would be one body ruling the entirety of the Earth Sphere (to include the colonies) is eerily similar to the now-defunct Alliance. That alone is likely to breed tension in a new era of peace.

However, the ESUN could instead be structured as a _Earth Sphere **United Nations**_ (plural), and take cues from the existing structure of the CE-era United Nations with the ESUN President serving as the modern day Secretary-General equivalent, and so on. Consensus building would still be critical to any policy-making, states would retain their individual sovereignty; but like the UN of today, the ESUN would face challenges of cohesion and implementation without serious backbone, public confidence, and material support behind it.

**Nature of Conflict**

Before we can talk about reconstruction efforts, we must consider the nature of the conflict itself and the degree of the violence therein. Again, a quick note on some key definitions. 

_Nation vs. State vs. Non-State Actors_

A [nation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nation) is a _social_ construct, people bound together by culture, history, etc. They don’t necessarily have legal authority over the land they occupy. A [state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_\(polity\)) is a legal authority. It is land _and_ a ruling government. Most _countries_ are a combination of both of these elements (and because political scientists are not the best at naming things, we refer to these as “nation-states”).

[Non-State Actors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-state_actor) are individuals or organizations which have significant political influence. They are independent actors _in their own right_ and are not (necessarily) affiliated any particular nation, state, or country. There is some wiggle room here—which is why you hear about “state-sponsored” terrorism—but the basic idea is that these guys are off on their own doing their own thing.

_What Classifies as “War” and Intensity of Conflict_

In terms of [accepted law](http://www.duhaime.org/LegalDictionary/W/War.aspx), war is a state of conflict _between (at least) two parties_ —nations or states—and is _a recognized or declared status_. Hostilities alone and occasional shelling or “proportional response” do not count as war. Noteworthy, you cannot _technically_ wage war on an idea (e.g., war on terror, war on drugs) because there is no tangible opponent against whom you are engaged. 

“War” [encompasses two kinds of conflicts](https://www.globalsecurity.org/intell/library/policy/army/fm/fm34-52/chapter9.htm):

  1. **Mid-Intensity Conflict:** war between two (or more) nations employ their resources _for limited objectives within bounds of certain policy limits on the extent of destructive power brought to bear_ (i.e., not total destruction, we just need concession on XX)  
  

  2. **High-Intensity Conflict:** war between two (or more) nations employ their resources, _period_ (i.e., we will fuckin’ annihilate you if we must, objective = total surrender)



“BUT WAIT,” you say! What about all the fighting that doesn’t happen between states? Well, there is a separate term for that: **Low-Intensity Conflict (LIC)** , or “conflicts short of war.” THIS is the kind of conflict you see most often nowadays and is defined by the following characteristics:

  * can involve (at least) one state on one side of the conflict, but it is not inherently a battle between sovereign states  
  

  * features non-state actor(s) who use a range of diplomatic, economic, and psycho-social pressures via terrorism, insurgency, and other subversive activity to achieve political, social, economic, military, or psychological objectives   
  

  * often protracted  
  

  * often features competing principles and ideologies  
  

  * generally localized and confined to a geographic area (i.e., not a global war)  
  

  * often characterized by constraints on the weaponry, tactics, and level of violence (i.e., the non-state actors don’t have an army behind them, and the state actors aren’t bringing their entire military down to bear on them)



I would thus argue that the nature of the conflict in the AC universe is in fact LIC, and _not_ war in the traditional sense. At the outset, it is _the Gundams_ who wage war on the Alliance on behalf of the colonies and—if you take supplemental material into account—even then, they are tied to the [Colony Liberation Organization](https://gundam.fandom.com/wiki/Colonies_Liberation_Organization) (CLO), a separatist group. Over the course of the series, we see that even the colonies’ populations are split on whether to support their actions. When the Alliance breaks apart from within, we are left with several militarized and/or otherwise influential factions who are vying for power in the vacuum that follows. [White Fang](https://gundam.fandom.com/wiki/White_Fang)’s rise as a colonial extremist group further supports the LIC nature of the conflict that we see in the series.

**Post-Conflict Negotiation and Reparations**

So now let’s talk reconstruction.

At the close of the conflict as shown in the series, we know both Earth (as an entity) and the colonies (as an entity) declared a ceasefire. This is Step #1 to coming to the table for peace negotiations and based on how the ceasefire is rolled out we can assume two main negotiation blocks.

If one assumes Earth no longer has any national borders, then conceivably an Earth-based negotiating party will be coming forward with one unified voice from the get-go. And if borders continue to exist, we can assume either (a) Earth had selected a group to represent their interests or (b) they debated text and policy positions and right/left limits and _then_ sent a group forward to negotiate. The colonies by comparison have long been disjointed and disconnected, acting independently and likely only in direct support of their own interests. They will have a harder time generating a unified front to negotiate with Earth and risk being pitted against one another as peace talks commence.

Something to consider here is the balance of power, perceived or otherwise. The former because although Earth may have a larger resource pool to immediately draw from in short order, thus giving Earth the “stronger” position in negotiations in the traditional sense, the colonies bring the threat of even more protracted conflict and the tenacity to re-engage. They were able to construct not one but several super weapons in secret; they could do it again. What’s more, we know that colonies (such as those in the L4 cluster) have been mining asteroids for resources for some time. [2]

Misinterpreting the true nature of your and your opponent’s power leads to miscalculation, and in negotiations it comes down to who really has the most to lose if negotiations fail. By default, the one who can walk away—and is willing to do so if things go sideways—is more powerful.

Some things that would keep one or both sides at the table include:

  * **Conflict Fatigue:** People have been fighting for a long-ass time and both populations are tired. This is the “enough is enough” motivator, in which the general populace is pushing their leadership to get the job done once and for all.  
  

  * **Resource Constraints:** One or more negotiating party does not have the time, people, materials, funding to continue the conflict. If this impacts one side of the table more than the other, then that side is weaker for it.  
  

  * **Time Constraints:** Sometimes ceasefires have an expiration date. If an agreement cannot be reached within that time, conflict starts again. Sometimes that’s enough of a motivator to _get shit done_...other times, it provides an opportunity for one side to wait out the other one and run the clock down.  
  

  * **Reparations or Policy Change:** In some cases, it may be determined that some objectives have not or cannot be effectively (or reliably) achieved through more violence and it’s better to negotiate.  
  

  * **Negotiations as a Confidence Building Measure:** After such a long conflict, we can assume neither side trusts the other, and for good reason. Trust deficits have to be mitigated through [confidence building measures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidence-building_measures) (CBMs). Sometimes those are actual tangible things (ref: OZ’s peaceful overtures during the series) and sometimes a willingness to talk _as equals_ can go a long way.



Assuming negotiations don’t inherently fail, you’re off to the races on reconstruction.

**Reconstruction and Rebuilding**

To be glib, “Hearts and minds, hearts and minds!” There are innumerable obstacles facing a community or communities after a conflict, and both the challenges and the urgency of addressing them often depends on the scope and nature of the conflict itself. I’ll focus here solely on how I have seen the post-conflict situation in the AC universe unfolding, based on the context provided above. 

_Challenge: History is Dictated by the Victor_

As any nuanced student of history knows, there are always two sides to the story (at least) and which story gets told and gains the most traction is usually that of the victor. On both sides of the conflict, there will be different narratives driven (a) intentionally because of political motivations and bias, or (b) because of ignorance and general lack of exposure. The likelihood that the Alliance deployed [propaganda](https://www.bl.uk/world-war-one/articles/propaganda-as-a-weapon) tools to villainize the colonists is pretty high (the extent to which they had to manipulate the truth is up for grabs, creatively speaking). So, there will have to be a _massive_ strategic messaging effort on the part of the ESUN, because that is where the responsibility for that will truly reside. The colonists themselves are not devoid of bias (which I’ll get to next) and will have to do their own messaging to their local populations...only theirs will likely be focused more on “we came out of negotiations _on top_ , look at what we got out of these guys, we’re charting our own path now and only working with these guys in these areas and can make a run at whatever future that we want.” I don’t foresee messaging aimed at colonial populations being in a “they’re our friends now” theme because that would likely be perceived as insincere and naive to large swathes of the population (especially those who had been part of any kind of resistance).

Transparency about the true nature of the conflict and its drivers and addressing the other challenges discussed below will help ensure an unbiased telling of the shared history across the Earth Sphere (to include the orbital colonies). Education will likely be part of this solution, whether in the truly academic sense (see: text books, research studies) or community outreach and engagement through both governmental and non-profit channels.

_Challenge: Overcoming Bias and Bigotry_

I’d contend that overcoming bias and bigotry will be a necessary component of reconstruction efforts, tied into the challenge I reference above. There is an inherent division between the combatants in AC, namely those from Earth and those from the colonies. As I mentioned above, I strongly suspect the Alliance deployed serious propaganda methods to villainize colonists. Colonists likely nurtured their own bigotry against their oppressors, but they are not the one that built the system in which the bigotry has festered. 

So. The Earth is yet again on the hook to break down the _institutional_ obstacles that were specifically designed to target and single out the colonial populations, undermine their interests, limit their success, and hinder their development. 

One of the most effective means to combat this challenge, however, is exposure. Socialization and opportunities to work and live alongside one another will aid in breaking down the arbitrary or outright imaginary social barriers constructed between the Earth and colonial populations at the individual- and community-levels. It will also have tangential benefits to any public policy changes the ESUN enacts.

_Challenge: What to Do with the Former Combatants_

We know from _Endless Waltz_ that at least _some_ of the former combatants felt like they’d been kicked to the curb or otherwise disenfranchised and therefore joined Dekim Barton’s short-lived rebellion. We also see citizens (when confronted by Dorothy Catalonia) in civilian dress talking about their wartime successes. We can infer from these exchanges that a large number of combatant units were disbanded after the conflict ended in AC 195. Some adjusted—or were socially supported—better than others. It’s only after Relena’s urgent transmission urging the populace to _fight_ to protect the peace does something lock into place and people rise up to resist the invading force en masse (sans weapons, notably). 

Draw-down efforts and figuring out the right (smaller) size of military power takes time, especially when it’s on the scale that we see in the AC universe. That is a lot of people to find new jobs for, which will cause a significant stress on the post-conflict economy (more to follow on that). A gradual phase-out—for both equipment and personnel—is likely the most stable means to go about right-sizing the military force on Earth (and the colonies) and would avoid a dramatic shock to the system.

_Challenge: How Do We Stabilize / Reinvigorate the Global Economy_

Some economist out there in the fandom (I know there’s gotta be at least one of you) can actually give us some tangible insight into specific economic policies that would or wouldn’t work; but from the limited policy perspective, two basic matters have to be addressed or taken into consideration:

  * You now have more people who are no longer in the business of military or insurgency operations. Based on the anticipated restructuring and decreasing of standing military presence, you will need to find jobs for them all lest you face social upheaval and/or economic down-spirals (people don’t spend if they can’t pay).  
  

  * You have whole industries and supply chains which were structured to keep the Earth-based military industrial complex rolling. You now need to repurpose a lot of that for civilian needs. Some of that will be easier said than done. 



Separate from these matters—but potentially even more important—are factors impacting the colonial economies themselves. How to reinvigorate or stabilize those depends on a couple additional factors, many of which stem from the status of colonial independence post-conflict. If the colonies are suddenly independent following peace talks, managing their economies will be yet another shock to navigate; however, the severity of it will be tied in a significant way to how integrated the colonial economies were with the global market prior to independence. In a similar vein, if the Alliance had utilized a wide net of punitive financial measures (e.g. economic sanctions) against colonies which stepped out of line, then all of those would need to be rolled back.

All of this will have ripple effects on an international scale which will need to be mitigated and navigated very carefully in the immediate aftermath of the conflict.

_Challenge: Righting Wrongs_

Coming out of a conflict, one of the key ways to establish legitimacy for the new dynamics between populations, former enemies, and the new status quo is to put in place measures which increase accountability and reconciliation. Easiest to point out are actual trials of war criminals and/or legal action against individuals who acted unethically and outside what is considered acceptable conduct under international law and principles of war (see: [Geneva Convention](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geneva_Conventions)).

Other means to get at this issue is international or national offices on reconciliation which serve to investigate claims of wrong-doing and provide evidence for legal action if determined appropriate. Sometimes this duty also falls to outside parties if governments are unable or unwilling to do it themselves, and the non-profit world does excellent work in this space, bringing international attention to humanitarian crises as they unfold and/or taking a “name and shame” approach to bad actors (both institutions and individuals).

_Challenge: Resisting the Temptation of Power_

Truth: absolute power corrupts absolutely. Therefore, checks and balances on power across the board and across all actors is critical to the sustainability of any kind of peace in the AC universe. The ESUN cannot be structured as all-powerful, even if it becomes the primary institution responsible for global governance. The Preventers itself cannot become the only game in town for security. The colonies need to retain some leverage (likely through economic means rather than security) over their Earth-based counterparts. 

How do you do that? Well, one is through actual institutional mechanisms. Make the Preventers report up through the ESUN. Structure the ESUN so that consensus-building is still the name of the game and the President is elected (either by straight vote or through a form of representative democracy). Give the colonies the comparative advantage in technical industries (i.e., make it faster, cheaper, better for them to do the hi-tech stuff so that Earth really _can’t_ ignore them). 

Another is through promoting globalization. You _want_ an interconnected economic and political order which promotes movement of goods, people, services, etc. at a fairly low cost (in financial or effort terms) which, conversely, increases the cost to any and all parties of engaging in actual conflict. Everyone needs each other for the system to work. By embracing this idea, all parties are driven to cooperate and increase their security across the board. [This is actually a form of “[post-liberalism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_relations_theory#Post-liberalism)” political theory, which you can read up on and I will refrain from extrapolating on further.]

**Closing Thoughts**

Based on the discussion above, I would contend that despite the “Eve Wars” nomenclature we see used within Gundam Wing, we’re not in fact dealing with a war in the true sense. Rather, we’re seeing the culmination of a protracted low-intensity conflict born out of resistance and retaliation for generations of oppression by a distant and apathetic governing body. What actions Earth and the colonies take immediately after the events of the series, and then subsequently after _Endless Waltz_ , will determine the sustainability of their hard-fought peace.

[1] In canon material, the Earth Sphere Unified Nation (ESUN) is transcribed as 地球圏統一国家. For comparison, United Nations in Japanese is 国連. [Odamaki](https://archiveofourown.org/users/Odamaki/) has previously made excellent observations on the not-so-subtle signaling in the ESUN’s naming convention and I’d encourage you to [read up on their Tumblr](https://lemontrash.tumblr.com/post/182160190714/post-war-ac-society).

[2] How and if those mining efforts can be redirected on a dime and used as leverage to strengthen the colonists’ negotiating position depends on what direction you want to go with your World Building. Same can be said with agriculture: if the colonists are not in fact hostage to Earth’s good graces to feed their people, they have greater leverage at the table than if they didn’t.


End file.
